The Sound of Many Band-Aids

The Sound of Many Band-Aids

We were going to give credit risk and commercial real estate a pass this week, but the news wouldn’t let us. Late Thursday our already troubled friend, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB), said it had discovered “material weaknesses” in how it tracks loan risk. The...

O as in Out-Of-Office

Yeah, well, there was a fear it might come, there were hints it might come, there were expert predictions it might come, there were small kids yelling: “It’s coming, it’s coming,” and this week it came: the office loan losses. It wasn’t a lot, but enough to evoke that...
What Goes Up, Must … What?

What Goes Up, Must … What?

Everyone knows that January is the time for sales. The market for government debt is no different. Come the new year, and countries around the world are looking to fund their budgets, which usually means that you can snag a good deal on treasury bonds. And in 2024 the...
When, How Far, and How Fast?

When, How Far, and How Fast?

Source: Wall Street Journal Those are the questions for entering 2024. The importance of interest rates to the global economy in general, and to our clients in particular, cannot be stressed enough (ha-ha.) And last year was a bumpy road trip chasing the elusive soft...
No Banking on (U.S.) Banks

No Banking on (U.S.) Banks

Higher interest rates are meant to be good for banks. It should increase their net interest income, their profits, and their stock price. Instead, this year, the large US bank stocks have fallen 15% whereas the rest of the stock market is up 19%. The Economist calls...