Shall We Swap Caterpillars?

Shall We Swap Caterpillars?

Naturally, the answer to this imperative question is always a resounding yes. Banks are special. Though there are many reasons for this, we would venture the opinion, that how they are impacted by interest rates is probably the most important one. There is hardly a...
Regretful Readiness

Regretful Readiness

The Canadian Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) just released its Annual Risk Outlook. The outlook lists the top risks faced by the Canadian financial system and the actions OSFI is taking in response. Words like geopolitical turbulence and...
Dunkelflaute

Dunkelflaute

This is by far one of my favorite German words. The direct translation is dark doldrums, and if that doesn’t say everything there is to say, I don’t know what does. Dunkelflaute’s more modern meaning is a period of time, often several days, with little or no sunlight...
European Banks: Less Rizz*, More Value

European Banks: Less Rizz*, More Value

The banks of Europe—including the UK (no offense!)—are doing great. A few weeks ago, the FT commented that measured by the 47 banks included in the European Stoxx 600 index, the total return and net dividends have outperformed the top US tech stocks known as the...
Delayed

Delayed

One can almost hear the collective groan that escapes from the gate area when the flight status changes from ON TIME to DELAYED on the board. However, I am pretty sure no bank let out the same kind of groan when OSFI, the Canadian bank regulator, announced this week...
Show Your Work

Show Your Work

It is common practice in both middle school and stress testing for the teacher/regulator to require you to show all the intermediate steps you went through to get to the final result. On the student and bank side, this scrutiny is often construed as unnecessary,...
So Close and Yet So Tariffs Away

So Close and Yet So Tariffs Away

Agreement has been in short supply lately, except when it comes to inflation being a pain that everyone wants to stop or at least get into a reasonable range of, say, 2%. As can be seen on the graph below, the Fed has been working its delicate tool of the interest...
Yes, Unfortunately

Yes, Unfortunately

This week the affected home and business owners in LA began to scale the mountain of paperwork that inevitably follows in the wake of the fires. First stop was most likely to file an insurance claim. However, afflicted as it is by fires and earthquakes, California is...
Beyond Stress

Beyond Stress

It was difficult to find an appropriate topic for this first Risk Report of 2025. In true New Year’s fashion every common risk topic—inflation, interest rates, dollar strength, bank regulation, and more—has been thrown into the air like confetti and it is not yet...