IFRS 9: Modeling Challenges

Calculating expected credit losses under IFRS 9 is easy. It requires little more than high school algebra to determine the aggregate present value of future cash flows. But it is not easy to ascertain the key components that are used by the basic equation—regardless...

Managing Model Risk

The Federal Reserve and the OCC define model risk as “the potential for adverse consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.”[1]  Statistical models are the core of stress testing and credit analysis, but banks are increasingly...

Time Series Data Curve Balls

Albert Pujols, one of the best baseball players in the game today, did not start the 2011 baseball season well.  Prior to 2011 he had a lifetime batting average (BA) of .331 – that’s almost one hit for every at bat!  However, much to the dismay of Cardinals fans (of...